London and Paris Lead Initiative to Deploy Troops in Ukraine to Uphold Ceasefire and Deter Russia
The idea of European troops in Ukraine is no longer just speculation. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are actively developing a plan to deploy military personnel from their respective countries if a ceasefire is reached. Unlike other world leaders, they see both risks and opportunities in this proposal.
During a White House meeting last Monday, Donald Trump reportedly told Macron that "Putin will allow" such a deployment as part of the security guarantees outlined by Washington for a peace agreement. However, Moscow quickly dismissed the idea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia does not support the presence of European forces in Ukraine. This disagreement could mark the first major point of contention between the U.S. and the Kremlin in ongoing negotiations.
Scope and Objectives of the Deployment
While details remain uncertain, France and the UK appear most willing to commit troops. However, Washington has clarified that this mission would operate outside NATO’s framework. This means that in the event of a Russian attack, neither France nor the UK could invoke NATO’s Article 5, which guarantees collective defense. This limitation contrasts with the protection afforded to troops stationed in NATO regions such as the Baltic states.
How Large Would the Force Be?
Estimates vary widely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested a force of 200,000 soldiers—an ambitious figure. By comparison, NATO's peacekeeping mission in Kosovo initially deployed 48,000 troops in 1999 to stabilize a territory of just 11,000 square kilometers. Ukraine, in contrast, is nearly 55 times larger, with an active front line stretching 850 kilometers and a 1,200-kilometer border with Belarus, a key Russian ally.
More conservative estimates suggest a deployment of between 30,000 and 150,000 soldiers. Claudia Major, an analyst at the German SWP think tank, suggests that alongside Ukraine’s existing forces, this could be sufficient. Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment proposes a more targeted force of three brigades—roughly 9,000 to 15,000 soldiers—positioned to secure key front-line sectors and respond rapidly to any attacks. To maintain regular rotations and training, Kofman estimates the total commitment could reach 50,000 troops.
Macron appears to support this model. He recently emphasized that while French and British troops would not engage in direct combat, they could be stationed in designated areas under a treaty, ensuring stability and reinforcing Europe’s credibility—backed by the U.S. He has reportedly discussed the plan with 30 European leaders, though some, including Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and Germany, have already declined participation. Others remain undecided.
Key Objectives of the Mission
According to The Guardian, British defense sources indicate that the deployment would aim to:
- Reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights safely.
- Ensure maritime security in the Black Sea, crucial for Ukraine’s grain and food exports.
Spanish Admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat, speaking to El Mundo, warns that two different military concepts are being conflated: deterrence and peacekeeping. He argues that if Macron’s goal is simply to monitor a ceasefire, a force of 30,000 troops—similar to UNIFIL’s peacekeeping role in Lebanon—could be sufficient. Their mission would focus on patrolling and reporting ceasefire violations rather than engaging in combat.
However, deterrence—the goal sought by Ukraine—requires a much larger force, capable of inflicting significant losses in case of attack, ensuring that any aggression would escalate into a full-scale EU response. This level of deterrence, Rodríguez Garat argues, would only be credible if it included U.S. brigades.
Strategic Risks and Challenges
Any deployment must also balance NATO’s broader security commitments. France and the UK cannot afford to weaken their presence in other critical areas, such as the Baltic states, where NATO faces growing threats. If a frozen conflict emerges in Ukraine while NATO’s strength in the Baltic declines, it could embolden Russian aggression elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Russia has signaled interest in cooperating with the U.S. on strategic mineral resources—particularly the rare earths highly sought after by Trump. The Kremlin has expressed willingness to allow American investment in Russia’s vast reserves of these critical materials, including those located in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
As discussions continue, the question remains: can Europe fill the security gap left by the U.S., and will its forces be strong enough to deter further Russian aggression?
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