he most unstable man in world affairs turns out to be utterly predictable

 



The President and Prime Minister share similar goals but take vastly different approaches to achieving them. Keir Starmer deserves credit for orchestrating a friendly and productive summit with Donald Trump, securing multiple "wins" for the UK. While Emmanuel Macron once famously touched Trump’s knee, Starmer settled for a more subtle shoulder pat. The key takeaway? Despite its ups and downs, the UK-US relationship remains deeply rooted in sentiment.


That’s only surprising if you took Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine at face value. Much of the West has reacted with alarm to his outreach to Russia and his branding of Zelensky as a “dictator”—a phrase he likely didn’t mean and now seems unsure if he even used. (Is Trump calling Trump a liar?) But this is how he operates: he floats provocative ideas, stirs the pot, and negotiates behind the scenes. Make him a compelling offer, and he’ll likely take it.


As for Britain’s influence in Washington? It turns out the price is two nights at Buckingham Palace. The most unpredictable man in global politics is, in reality, entirely predictable.

Some surprises will reverberate in UK politics. For the Left, Trump’s apparent fondness for Britain contrasts with the open disdain of figures like David Lammy and Peter Mandelson. Highlighting the return of Winston Churchill’s bust to the Oval Office, Trump signaled his admiration for British history—perhaps a cue for the Left to stop trying to erase it.


Meanwhile, Brexit could bring unexpected economic advantages. Now outside the EU, Britain avoids being lumped into Trump's grievances about Europe’s supposed conspiracy against American carmakers. That could mean exemption from his tariffs. But the eurosceptic Right shouldn’t be too smug—Trump also cautiously endorsed Starmer’s Chagos Islands deal, a blow to the Tories and Reform. Their argument hinged on “America opposes this,” but if Trump is on board, stopping it becomes far more difficult.


This serves as a warning to UK politicians tempted to use Trump as a domestic ally: he prioritizes his own interests and will abandon a cause if it no longer serves them.

Trump is signaling a shift in the global order, moving away from America’s open-ended commitment to European security and toward priorities like border control and Iran. While the US may maintain a presence in postwar Ukraine, it will be to safeguard economic interests—Trump summed it up simply: “dig we must.” His “backstop” is American self-interest.


Starmer and his team see both challenges and opportunities in this shift. First, they view it as a chance to redefine Europe as an independent political and military force—one that can provide more reliable, long-term leadership. Second, Britain aims to position itself as a bridge between the US and Europe, persuading Trump that his self-interest aligns with European security. Starmer’s commitment to increasing UK defense spending to 2.5% of GDP signals Britain’s willingness to invest in this role. “I’m all in,” he told Trump. “Could go higher,” Trump replied.


Labour is attempting to reshape what David Lammy calls “progressive realism”—balancing liberal ideals like development and decolonization with the realities of a world increasingly shaped by authoritarian threats. To be principled, one must also be pragmatic. That means Britain must maintain a strong military and engage with populists like Trump.


Meanwhile, Washington is embracing a form of “conservative realism,” which flips the equation. America-first policies don’t have to be amoral; even authoritarian regimes, like Saudi Arabia, can be encouraged to pursue stability and peace. Trump often speaks of his disdain for war, describing the situation in Ukraine as a “spiral of death.”


 He played up his calls with Putin as “very successful” but was noncommittal about a resolution, saying peace would come “fairly soon or not at all.” The bluster and controversy, it seems, are just part of his negotiation strategy—the real work happens behind closed doors.


Ultimately, global stability depends on the strength of democratic forces—something Starmer recognizes. His emphasis on “peace through strength” aligns with the views of US conservatives like Marco Rubio, who see ending the Ukraine war not as a retreat but as a strategic recalibration. The US, they argue, must shift focus to China.

In short, despite the alarmist reactions to Trump’s return, his administration is pragmatic and open to negotiation.


At its core, Trump’s agenda is economic. His second (and final) term is already marked by an aggressive audit of US trade and spending—both abroad and domestically. He’s attempting to purge thousands of federal employees and slash government programs in a bid to rein in fiscal chaos.


Why? Because American conservatives believe their country is on the brink of economic collapse. They see this moment as a rare opportunity to transform the US from a failing enterprise into a profit-making powerhouse. In approach, this is vastly different from the Starmer-Reeves project. But in confronting the reality of the West’s stagnation—marked by slow growth and declining self-confidence—they are drawing from the same well.


So, credit to Starmer: his measured, analytical approach paid off. “You’re a very tough negotiator,” Trump remarked. “I’m not sure I like that.” Expect Labour to repeat that line endlessly—and to wield it against Reform.

That said, nearly any UK Prime Minister with a modicum of strategic sense could have walked into the White House and left with a warm reception. Trump is not irrational, and he has every reason to take Britain seriously.


The real comedic moment? The near-simultaneous arrivals of Starmer at the White House and the Tate brothers in Florida—breathlessly covered by Sky News as if of equal geopolitical weight. One British export the US is welcome to keep.

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