A meeting in Paris aims to develop a strategic action plan for Ukraine's future as U.S. and Russian delegates prepare for discussions. A stark divide over Ukraine will become apparent on Monday when U.S. officials commence preliminary ceasefire talks in Riyadh with Russian counterparts, while French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a summit in Paris with European defense leaders to urge the U.S. to include Europe and Kyiv in negotiations.
The U.S.-Russia talks precede a scheduled meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, marking the first high-level diplomatic engagement between the two nations in over two years. European leaders fear that Russia, through these talks, aims to impose Ukrainian neutrality and negotiate a U.S.-Russia agreement delineating spheres of influence.
The Paris summit will seek to establish a European action plan amid disjointed messaging from the Trump administration. Attendees must also decide how to respond to a U.S. request for clarification on whether European nations are willing to contribute troops to a stabilization force in the event of a ceasefire.
Among the key participants are U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. France is determined to ensure that the U.K. remains central to all future discussions regarding Ukraine.
Downing Street stated that Starmer could play a crucial role in securing Ukraine’s future by conveying Europe’s concerns about a potential U.S.-Russia agreement directly to former President Donald Trump during his upcoming visit to Washington, D.C. He will then report back to European leaders. “It’s not a role we actively sought, but it is one the Prime Minister is prepared to take on,” a source commented.
On Sunday night, Starmer told The Telegraph that he was open to deploying British troops in Ukraine to help maintain peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, expressed skepticism regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to make concessions. He reiterated his warning that Russia might attack NATO countries in the coming year. Ukraine and its European allies suspect that Putin seeks a reconfiguration of the postwar global order as a precondition for any ceasefire.
Confirming the Paris summit, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated on France Inter radio, “The president will convene key European nations tomorrow to discuss European security.” He emphasized a growing sense of unity among European allies.
Diplomatic sources indicated that the Monday afternoon meeting would include representatives from Italy, Denmark, the Baltic and Scandinavian nations, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The summit will explore European defense capabilities to provide Ukraine with credible security guarantees. One proposal under consideration is the automatic granting of NATO membership to Ukraine in the event of a clear ceasefire violation by Russia. The U.S. has emphasized that any ceasefire agreement must include severe repercussions for violations, a component missing from previous agreements since 2014.
“Only the Ukrainians can decide when to stop fighting,” Barrot stated. “They will not cease until they are certain that the peace offered to them is durable.”
The idea of conditional NATO membership for Ukraine has gained traction among U.S. senators and senior European leaders, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb. He emphasized that Europe should not entertain Russian ambitions of dividing territories into spheres of influence. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy on Ukraine, briefed European leaders in Munich on Washington’s negotiation strategy, which Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski described as unconventional.
Notably, neither Ukraine nor European nations have been invited to the Riyadh talks. Kellogg reassured European leaders that their perspectives would be considered and suggested that previous peace negotiations had failed due to an excessively broad negotiating table.
Over the weekend, differing approaches within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine negotiations became evident. Rubio stressed on Sunday that any peace deal must be lasting, just, and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. He also insisted that Ukraine and European allies must be involved in meaningful discussions.
“The president has expressed his desire to end this conflict in a way that is enduring, that protects Ukrainian sovereignty, and that ensures peace without another invasion in a few years,” Rubio stated on CBS’s Face the Nation during a visit to Israel.
Trump recently surprised Ukraine and its allies by revealing that he discussed Ukraine’s future with Putin in a phone call last Wednesday. The former president omitted any mention of Ukrainian sovereignty and suggested that Ukrainians might “be Russian someday.”
On Sunday night, Trump told reporters that he was working diligently to secure peace and expected to meet Putin “very soon.”
Macron stated that he was neither shocked nor surprised by Trump’s rapid efforts to broker a ceasefire. However, European officials worry that Russia is seeking not only Ukraine’s neutrality—through military size limitations and Zelenskyy’s removal—but also a broader spheres-of-influence arrangement akin to the 1945 Yalta Agreement, which divided Europe without the consent of smaller nations.
Such an agreement, one European official warned, would leave some Western nations within “a coercive sphere where countries live in fear.”
European leaders remain divided over Trump’s initiatives, with some fearing a fundamental rupture in transatlantic relations, while others argue that strengthening Europe’s security framework could mend ties and ensure Europe’s role in shaping Ukraine’s future.
Downing Street emphasized that Starmer’s meetings with both European leaders and Trump were partly coincidental but also reflected the U.K. government’s aim to serve as a diplomatic bridge between Europe and the U.S. Officials stated that Starmer’s approach would be to de-escalate tensions.
“Our approach is to remain composed and serve as a stabilizing partner for the U.S.,” a No. 10 source noted. “That’s why we cannot be distracted by matters like JD Vance’s speech. Regardless of personal opinions, there are far more pressing concerns.”
EU leaders are also expected to discuss increased defense spending, facilitated by budget expansions and relaxed EU debt rules concerning defense investments.
“We are preparing an unprecedented security investment package,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated. “Just as we responded to the euro and pandemic crises, Europe must now act decisively on defense.” The package is expected to be finalized following next weekend’s German elections.
While Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s call for a unified European army in Munich was met with skepticism, Macron has long advocated for a distinct European military force. Nearly a year ago, he proposed deploying European troops to Ukraine on a training mission.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski echoed these sentiments, stating: “If the U.S. expects Europe to step up in defense, we need a national component, a NATO component, and an EU component. Europe must invest in its defense industry and develop an EU force worthy of its name.”
However, he clarified that Poland would not deploy troops to Ukraine, emphasizing its primary duty to NATO: defending the alliance’s eastern flank.
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