President Trump has been complimentary toward Vladimir Putin as he works toward brokering a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, but he’s also gently signaling that Putin will need to make significant concessions—chiefly, Ukraine should regain its land.
On Wednesday, Trump told reporters his goal is “to make the best deal we can for both sides,” and for Ukraine, that means getting “as much back as possible.”
That’s a positive stance.
The Kremlin has already pushed back against Trump’s suggestion that Putin might accept European troops in Ukraine to maintain peace; if Moscow digs in on this, Putin may find himself trapped in a war he cannot afford. Russia’s economy is deteriorating, and Putin’s supply of North Korean cannon fodder won’t last forever.
Trump has made it clear that Ukraine will need to make some sacrifices too: He mentioned that Ukraine must abandon its aspirations of joining NATO. However, the return of the thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia is still undecided.
While Trump has indicated that Western sanctions on Russia might be lifted “at some point,” Moscow should not expect this to come without cost.
Russia’s illegal annexation and occupation of roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory in 2022—excluding Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014—cannot be ignored. Allowing the Kremlin to keep the land it seized over the past three years would only encourage Putin to regroup and press for more territory later.
Putin has made it clear that the return of these territories is a key issue for him, but he too must pay a price for the peace he desperately needs. Additionally, recall the agreement Trump and Zelensky are expected to sign on Friday, which will allow the United States to gain revenue from Ukraine’s rare minerals. Many of these resources are located in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, where Putin’s forces are stationed, meaning Washington has a stake in Ukraine regaining its territory.
Regardless of any provocations Putin claims to have faced, he started this war and has committed countless war crimes—kidnappings, targeting hospitals, and more.
Back on February 22, 2022, he gambled that he could win quickly and cheaply, but since then, he’s had to double down on a more difficult path. Yet Ukraine’s resolve remains unbroken. Putin may still hope to win before running out of resources, but his chances of losing them all are growing.
Trump is offering him a way out, but it should not be without consequences. He must push Putin to truly understand the stakes and pay the price for peace.
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