There has been a lot of panic in Ukraine and Europe about the possibility of the U.S. and Russia negotiating a peace agreement over their heads — is this justified?

 

In recent months, concerns have been growing in Ukraine and Europe about the possibility of the United States and Russia negotiating a peace agreement without Kyiv’s direct involvement. This fear stems from reports of backchannel discussions and shifting political dynamics in Washington and Moscow. But how justified is this anxiety?

There’s President Trump on the phone—calling Putin, calling Zelensky—while meetings take place at NATO and in Munich. The situation involves extensive consultations and discussions, but no direct negotiations are currently underway. It’s uncertain whether negotiations with Russia will even be possible.

Several dynamics are unfolding, many of which are being misinterpreted, though some aspects are worth noting. As expected, Trump has reached out to Putin to push for an end to the war, and he has now followed up by dispatching a team to meet with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia.

There has been significant media attention surrounding various statements made over the past week, some of which may have been taken out of context or exaggerated.

For instance, when U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated at the NATO meeting that it was unrealistic for Ukraine to reclaim its 2014 borders, his remarks were not fundamentally different from those made by President Zelensky in January. Zelensky had acknowledged that retaking the territory militarily was unlikely and emphasized the need for alternative approaches, contingent upon security guarantees for the rest of Ukraine.

The Root of the Concerns

Ukraine has been firm in its stance that any negotiations about its future must include its government. However, speculation about a potential deal between Washington and Moscow has been fueled by several factors:

• U.S. Political Shifts: With the upcoming presidential election in the U.S., some American politicians have signaled a desire to wind down support for Ukraine and seek a diplomatic resolution to the war.
• Russian Diplomatic Efforts: Moscow has sought to engage with Western leaders, suggesting potential ceasefire talks that would likely benefit Russia's current battlefield position.
• European Anxiety: Some European nations worry that if the U.S. prioritizes its strategic interests, it might push Ukraine into accepting a deal that does not fully restore its sovereignty.

What Washington and Moscow Are Saying

While the Biden administration has repeatedly affirmed its support for Ukraine and insisted that "nothing about Ukraine will be decided without Ukraine," there are concerns that a change in leadership in Washington could alter this position. Meanwhile, Russia has continued to push narratives suggesting that the West is losing the will to continue military and financial aid to Ukraine.

Moscow would likely welcome negotiations that freeze the conflict along current lines, effectively legitimizing its territorial gains. For Ukraine, such a scenario would be unacceptable, as it would reward aggression and leave occupied territories under Russian control.

Ukraine’s Red Lines

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept any deal that does not include the full restoration of its internationally recognized borders. Kyiv also seeks security guarantees to prevent a future Russian invasion and long-term support from Western allies.

Furthermore, Ukrainian officials emphasize that a premature peace deal without Ukraine’s consent would not be sustainable. It would only embolden Russia to regroup and launch another attack in the future.

The European Perspective

European nations have largely backed Ukraine’s position, but divisions exist. Some leaders, particularly in countries more dependent on Russian energy or those facing domestic political pressure, might be more inclined to explore diplomatic solutions. Others, like Poland and the Baltic states, strongly oppose any compromise that weakens Ukraine.

The European Union has also committed to long-term financial and military aid, signaling that it does not intend to abandon Ukraine, even if U.S. support wavers.

Conclusion

While the fear of a U.S.-Russia deal sidelining Ukraine is understandable, it remains unlikely—at least under the current U.S. administration. Any negotiated settlement would require Ukraine’s agreement to be legitimate and lasting. However, Ukraine and its allies must remain vigilant, ensuring that any peace talks prioritize Ukrainian sovereignty and security, rather than geopolitical convenience.