U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to bring a swift resolution to the Ukraine war, but as negotiations loom, the author of *The Art of the Deal* may have already undermined his position by sacrificing key leverage.
Trump, who assumed office on January 20, held separate phone calls on Wednesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, instructing U.S. officials to initiate talks aimed at ending the nearly three-year conflict. These calls followed remarks by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who told Ukraine's military allies in Brussels that restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders—before Russia annexed Crimea—was unrealistic. Hegseth also stated that NATO membership for Kyiv was not part of the solution and ruled out any U.S. troop presence in Ukraine as part of a future security arrangement.
Michael McFaul, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama from 2012 to 2014, criticized the Trump administration's approach ahead of the negotiations. "Why is the Trump administration giving Putin gifts—Ukrainian land and no NATO membership for Ukraine—before negotiations even begin?" McFaul posted on social media platform X. "I've negotiated with the Russians. You never give up anything to them for free."
Russia currently occupies approximately one-fifth of Ukraine and has demanded that Kyiv cede territory and adopt permanent neutrality as part of any peace agreement. Ukraine, on the other hand, insists on the withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied lands and seeks NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to deter future aggression. Putin has repeatedly expressed openness to talks but maintains that Russia's objectives in Ukraine—ensuring the country's "demilitarization" and neutrality—remain non-negotiable.
While Trump administration officials had previously hinted that they would not fully support Ukraine's goals, the explicit statements from Hegseth and Trump have alarmed European allies. "No NATO membership, no boots on the ground? Sounds like abandoning Ukraine," former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis posted on X in response to Hegseth's comments, which were made ahead of the Munich Security Conference set to take place later this week. "Delegates are flying to Munich not to negotiate, but to deliver Zelenskiy the bad news."
When asked on Wednesday whether Hegseth's remarks had weakened U.S. leverage, Trump responded, "I'm backing Ukraine."
A 'Concession to Reality'
Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, characterized Hegseth's comments as a "concession to reality." He clarified that the remarks did not indicate U.S. recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory as legally Russian but suggested that ruling out NATO membership could signal to Moscow that a realistic settlement is possible.
Since the war began in February 2022, Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, alongside European allies, had maintained a firm stance, demanding Russia's withdrawal and leaving open the possibility of Ukraine's eventual NATO membership. The U.S. and Europe have provided Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military aid, and Russia has faced significant diplomatic isolation at the United Nations, where a majority of the General Assembly has repeatedly condemned Moscow's invasion and called for troop withdrawals.
Putin and Trump to Meet
The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that Putin and Trump had agreed to meet, with Putin extending an invitation for Trump to visit Moscow. Such a visit would be a significant diplomatic win for Putin, who is under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for his actions in Ukraine.
Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration, compared Trump's willingness to meet Putin to his high-profile summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his first term, which failed to curb Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. "This is the kind of stuff you should get concessions for," Bruen said. "You demand that the Kremlin not only free more Americans but cede territory in Ukraine."
Minerals for Security
Trump's calls and Hegseth's remarks coincided with a visit to Kyiv by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested that a minerals deal between Ukraine and the U.S. could provide Ukraine with a post-war "security shield." Zelenskiy expressed readiness to open Ukraine's mineral resources to U.S. investment.
Trump hinted on Wednesday that such a deal could secure U.S. funding for Ukraine, stating, "I told Biden, I said: 'You ought to be asking for either a loan or some kind of security, like their oil and gas or something for the money.'"
John Herbst, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006 under President George W. Bush, noted that while the U.S. had relinquished some leverage with Russia, Bessent's visit to Kyiv was a positive signal. "Trump is talking about exchanging American weapons for Ukrainian minerals. So this is a vehicle, under Trump's logic, for sending weapons to Ukraine," Herbst said. "That's a big deal and very positive."
A Dangerous Precedent
However, a hastily negotiated deal on unequal terms could set a dangerous precedent. British lawmaker and former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly warned that starting negotiations by outlining what one side must concede is "not a strong move."
"Giving the impression that invasion pays off is not a strong move. Regimes are watching closely. Let's send the message that violence and aggression don't win out. I stand with Ukraine," Cleverly posted on X.
As the situation unfolds, the international community remains wary of the potential consequences of Trump's approach, with many concerned that it could embolden aggressors and undermine global security norms.
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