While more Britons and Americans now perceive Vladimir Putin as a serious threat, their willingness to support military action is declining. Donald Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day was met with skepticism. However, after his recent discussions with President Putin and Zelensky and US special envoy Keith Kellogg’s upcoming visit to Kyiv, expectations are growing that a diplomatic settlement may be within reach.
Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, President Zelensky insists that Putin is not pursuing peace and that only increased pressure will halt his aggression.
“We need unity and unwavering support from all our partners in the fight for a just end to this war,” Zelensky declared after last week’s missile strike on Kyiv.
Yet, my latest polling indicates that many Ukrainians feel this unity and support are lacking. Less than half believe that the US or EU countries—let alone NATO—are doing enough to assist Ukraine. Support has also fallen in Britain, with just two-thirds believing the UK is providing sufficient aid, down from 74% two years ago. What Ukrainians want most are more weapons, tanks, and military equipment, followed by NATO membership and stricter sanctions on Russia. However, few believe these will materialize.
Their skepticism is not unfounded. The days of Ukrainian flags waving from Western homes and public buildings are long gone. In the US, the number of people who believe America is doing too much for Ukraine—both in humanitarian and military support—has risen since 2023. In Britain, that figure has doubled. Among Trump voters, nearly half think the US is already overcommitted militarily. On both sides of the Atlantic, public opinion has shifted away from achieving an outright Ukrainian victory and toward negotiating a compromise.
After three years of brutal warfare and the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, Ukrainians are exhausted, and optimism is fading. Today, fewer than a quarter believe their country’s defense efforts are progressing successfully—down from 85% two years ago. While most see the war as a stalemate rather than a Russian advantage, confidence in Ukraine’s ability to defeat the invasion is waning.
It is unsurprising, then, that Ukrainians overwhelmingly oppose lowering the conscription age from 25 to 18, a policy the Biden administration urged last year.
As a result, many in Ukraine now accept that the war will likely end through negotiations rather than a military victory. A significant majority now expects a diplomatic resolution—reversing the sentiment from 2023. Only three in ten believe Ukraine can reclaim all territory annexed by Russia and that the fight must continue until that goal is achieved. Most now feel that some land will have to be ceded for peace—either because military reconquest is unrealistic or, more commonly, because the cost of prolonging the war is simply too high. A vast majority now supports beginning negotiations.
Interestingly, many Russians share this view. While polling from Russia should be interpreted with caution—given the country’s restrictions on dissent—it remains telling. It suggests that an increasing number of Russians are willing to challenge the official narrative, and public sentiment is shifting.
Although Putin’s approval remains high, and many Russians still accept his version of events, my latest survey found declining support for the so-called “special military operation,” particularly among those who rely on non-state media for their news.
Nearly half of Russians said their quality of life had worsened over the past three years, and when asked who they blamed, the top answers were “the federal government,” “the president,” and “the conflict in Ukraine.” A large majority now believes the war will end through diplomacy and supports starting negotiations.
However, this does not mean an imminent resolution. Most Ukrainians expect the war to continue for at least another year. While many believe Trump’s election could speed up the conflict’s resolution, only a minority think it will result in a better outcome for Ukraine.
Furthermore, a willingness to negotiate does not equate to surrender. Ukrainians overwhelmingly reject the idea of officially recognizing Russian-occupied territories as part of Russia. Their commitment to territorial integrity and national sovereignty remains firm—something that Western allies have consistently underestimated. They also remain determined to honor the sacrifices of those who have died defending their country.
Moreover, there is little trust in Western security guarantees, which would inevitably be a key component of any settlement. Given the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum—in which the US and Britain assured Ukraine’s security in exchange for relinquishing its nuclear weapons—this skepticism is understandable.
For three years, the West has failed to match its “whatever it takes” rhetoric with meaningful action in Ukraine. If we are indeed approaching the war’s endgame, now is not the time to falter.
Ironically, while more people in Britain and the US see Russia as a serious threat to their national security, their willingness to confront that threat has waned. Whether there will be consequences for this retreat remains to be seen.
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