As Donald Trump and his administration reverse three years of U.S. support for Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy finds himself navigating a precarious diplomatic situation. While he has faced many challenges during his presidency, this past week ranks among the most difficult.
On Monday, in a lengthy interview with The Guardian at his Kyiv office, Zelenskyy appeared cautiously optimistic. He noted receiving "positive signals from the Americans" regarding upcoming negotiations and stated that his team was working to arrange a meeting with Trump. He expressed confidence that the U.S. president understood the necessity of coordinating with Kyiv before engaging with Russia.
Zelenskyy repeatedly emphasized that U.S. involvement was crucial in ensuring any potential peace settlement. If NATO membership was off the table for Ukraine, he insisted, the country needed NATO-style security guarantees to deter future aggression from Vladimir Putin. "Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees," he stated unequivocally.
However, the reality of Trump's second term quickly set in. By Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out both NATO membership for Ukraine and any U.S. role in enforcing a peace deal. That same day, Trump announced a 90-minute phone call with Putin, followed by a press conference in which he dismantled years of U.S. rhetoric supporting Ukraine.
In Kyiv, the news was as shocking as the Iskander missile strikes that shook the city that morning. Trump described the war as a "bad decision" for Ukraine, suggesting Kyiv had chosen to be invaded. He refused to recognize Ukraine as an equal partner in negotiations, criticized Zelenskyy’s poll numbers, and prioritized recovering U.S. financial aid rather than securing Ukraine’s future. He also questioned Ukraine’s territorial claims, implying that Russia might deserve to keep occupied land because "they took a lot of land and they fought for that land."
Perhaps the most infuriating remark for Ukrainians was Trump's dismissive comment in a TV interview: "They may be Russian someday, they may not be Russian someday, but we’re gonna have all this money in there and I said I want it back." This trivialized Ukraine’s existential battle for sovereignty while framing it as a financial burden on the U.S.
Zelenskyy has since been treading carefully, aware that any criticism of Trump could further jeopardize Ukraine’s position. On Monday, he cautiously praised Trump’s "decisiveness" and repeated the sentiment at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a keynote speech at the conference, barely mentioning Ukraine, reinforcing concerns that U.S. support is eroding.
The situation is eerily reminiscent of 2019 when Trump’s attempt to pressure Zelenskyy into investigating Hunter Biden embroiled Ukraine in an impeachment scandal. At the time, Zelenskyy flattered Trump to avoid conflict. Now, with Ukraine’s survival at stake, his administration has devised a "victory plan" to appeal to Trump. Instead of focusing on shared democratic values, Kyiv is offering lucrative business opportunities—joint exploitation of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and postwar reconstruction contracts for U.S. firms.
This approach caught Trump’s attention, and by Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrived in Kyiv with a draft agreement on natural resources. However, reports suggest the deal would require Ukraine to cede 50% of its mineral wealth without receiving security guarantees in return. "It made people quite upset," said a Kyiv source, and Zelenskyy has yet to sign.
For Ukraine’s allies, the sudden shift in U.S. policy feels like a betrayal. EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová, after attending the funeral of two Ukrainian soldiers, questioned on Facebook how a deal could be made about Ukraine without Ukraine’s involvement. "How could such an agreement ever be explained to the families of the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have fallen defending their homeland?" she wrote.
While some Ukrainians are open to concessions for the sake of peace, the lack of security guarantees makes any deal risky. Militarily, Ukraine faces significant challenges, especially if U.S. aid is cut off. Reports indicate that by summer, Ukrainian forces could be in serious trouble due to desertion, recruitment struggles, and frontline exhaustion.
Despite the dire situation, some warn against rushing into a flawed deal. Former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko argued that negotiating too soon could worsen Ukraine’s position. "The earlier we get to the table, the worse the outcome will be," he cautioned, citing a Ukrainian saying: "Don’t fall down before you’re shot."
Instead, Prystaiko suggests leveraging European support, particularly by pushing for the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense. Though the situation looks bleak, many Ukrainians remain defiant. In 2022, experts predicted Kyiv would fall in days, yet Ukraine fought back. "Ukraine has survived three years, and Russia is still struggling for villages in the Donbas," said a senior security official. "The front won’t collapse, but the fight will get harder."
Beyond the war, Zelenskyy must also consider his political future. Trump and his envoy, Keith Kellogg, have raised the issue of Ukrainian elections—an argument echoed by the Kremlin. Zelenskyy bristled when asked about this on Monday, asserting, "It’s an internal matter… No one, no matter how powerful, can dictate when we hold elections. That is Ukraine’s sovereign right."
Under martial law, elections are impossible, and logistical challenges make them impractical even if a ceasefire were reached. Millions of Ukrainians live in occupied territories, on the frontlines, or as refugees abroad. "Will elections wait 20 years? No. But demanding them now is unrealistic," Zelenskyy said.
Some Ukrainians criticize Zelenskyy’s leadership and his centralization of power. A recent decision to impose financial sanctions on former president Petro Poroshenko was widely seen as political retribution. However, most agree that elections during wartime would be disastrous. "During the war, there’s no room for politics, let alone elections," said MP Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. "It would mean Putin’s victory the next day."
If a stable peace deal is reached, elections could take place later this year. Analysts suggest that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former army commander turned ambassador, is a strong contender if he runs. Against other candidates, Zelenskyy stands a better chance.
Zelenskyy is widely expected to seek another term, but when asked, he remained noncommittal. "That’s a rhetorical question for me," he admitted. "I don’t know. I don’t know how this war will end."
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