Ukraine's NATO Membership Remains Uncertain
Ukraine’s path to NATO membership appears increasingly uncertain. While the previous U.S. administration quietly opposed extending an invitation, the current administration has made its stance clear.
"You can forget about (NATO membership). That's probably the reason the whole thing (war) started," former U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 26 when asked about a potential settlement between Ukraine and Russia.
Such opposition from Ukraine’s primary ally once raised eyebrows—now, it no longer surprises. For decades, Russian officials and propaganda have used NATO expansion as a justification for aggressive actions against neighboring countries, including wars in Ukraine and Georgia. Despite various explanations from NATO member states for their reluctance to welcome Ukraine into the alliance, experts suggest the primary reason remains Moscow’s opposition.
"The Biden administration was always fearful of escalating the conflict with Russia. The Trump administration has its own reasons, probably linked to a deal it's trying to strike with Moscow on a ceasefire," said Mark Webber, a non-resident associate fellow at the NATO Defense College.
Does Ukraine Meet NATO's Requirements?
NATO maintains an “open door” policy, meaning a country can join with the unanimous consent of all 32 members. Candidate nations must demonstrate support for democracy, a market economy, civilian control of the military, respect for sovereignty, and compatibility with NATO forces. The first step toward membership is receiving a Membership Action Plan (MAP), which provides recommendations for the applicant country.
In 2008, Ukraine sought a MAP and secured support from U.S. President George W. Bush. However, under pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, key NATO members—particularly Germany and France—blocked Ukraine’s bid.
Years later, following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea and occupation of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Kyiv revived its NATO aspirations. Before the war, most Ukrainians favored neutrality over military alliances, but support for NATO surged past 80% after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
In late 2022, Ukraine applied for accelerated accession, and in 2023, NATO leaders ruled that Kyiv could join without a MAP. However, unlike Finland and Sweden, which were swiftly admitted despite their proximity to Russia, Ukraine received no formal invitation.
"Ukraine is an unusual case—an important, pro-NATO country eager to join, yet unable to secure consensus for admission," Webber noted.
Experts suggest that NATO members may be hesitant to assume obligations toward a country at war. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty commits members to collective defense, but it does not specify required actions, leaving room for interpretation. Concerns about corruption and transparency in Ukraine’s defense sector have also been cited as barriers, though Webber argues these are merely excuses.
"Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania joined NATO and the EU despite significant corruption concerns. So, in Ukraine’s case, the real issue is geopolitical—fear of provoking Russia," Webber said.
This view is echoed by Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham.
"Russia perceives Ukrainian NATO membership as an existential threat because Putin cannot accept Ukraine turning away from Russia. Unlike Finland or Sweden, Ukraine is integral to Putin’s vision of a Russian sphere of influence," Wolff said.
Russia's Influence on NATO Decisions
Russia has repeatedly justified its invasion of Ukraine by citing NATO expansion as a threat. Now, it demands Ukraine’s permanent exclusion from NATO as a condition for any potential peace settlement.
While NATO members such as the U.K., France, Italy, Poland, and the Baltic states strongly support Ukraine’s accession, key players—including the U.S., Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia—oppose it.
"Germany has traditionally been cautious about antagonizing Russia," Webber said, though it remains unclear whether this stance will shift under Friedrich Merz, who is set to become Germany’s next chancellor. Merz has voiced strong support for Ukraine, including advocating for sending long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, a move Chancellor Olaf Scholz has resisted.
Meanwhile, Slovakia and Hungary, led by Prime Ministers Robert Fico and Viktor Orban, remain firmly against Ukraine’s NATO bid, arguing it would escalate tensions with Russia.
The biggest roadblock, however, is Washington. The Biden administration has signaled that Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO or receive formal security guarantees. Even if Ukraine were to join, Wolff questioned whether NATO membership would provide the security Kyiv seeks.
"The key question, to which no one has an answer, is whether, under Trump, Article 5 would still serve as a credible deterrent. If not, then NATO membership alone would not guarantee Ukraine the security it needs," Wolff said.
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